Krypt3ia

(Greek: κρυπτεία / krupteía, from κρυπτός / kruptós, “hidden, secret things”)

Archive for the ‘PANDEMIC’ Category

SARS-CoV-2 Lab Leak Intelligence Assessments

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This article is part of an ongoing experiment with the use of ChatGPT for developing primers on cyber security topics.

As this is in the news this week, and Director Wray came out and spoke about it last night, I thought a little intelligence report generated by ChatGPT and a threat assessment might be fun. Personally, I have always held that the potential of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 was higher in this scenario than the wet market scenario due to several things.

Firstly, the virus seems to have been, for a zoonitc event, all too readily infectious for humans right from the start. While SARS virus’ are already seen in humans and of course SARS had an outbreak in China back in 2002, the impacts of that particular strain were not as massive as SARS-CoV-2. One of the primary reasons for that from my reading, has been the difference in the virus in Cov-2-19 is it’s ability to bond to the ACE2 within our systems and run rampant. It is also to be noted that the genetic structure of the virus does not rule out genetic manipulation, specifically, that of gain of fucntion research, which is what WIV had been working on.

Secondly, there were at least three emplyees of the WIV who got sick in November, just before the pandemic started in Wuhan, who may have in fact had Covid-19. Not much is known about these three people as the Chinese governmnet is not being transparent about them, but, it is quite the coincidence that these three lab workers got sick with an unknown disease, in November, and then the full outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 began in December, in Wuhan of all places.

Thirdly, the Chinese government has been very obtuse in cooperating with anyone about getting to patient zero in this pandemic and has actively blocked investigations. Of course, this is a tricky situation for any country, the epicenter of a pandemic, but China has really blocked so much of the potential truth that it cannot be dismissed. I am not saying in any way, that this was a deliberate release, or that this virus was being “weaponized” in a military program though. It is my contention, that they were doing gain of function work in efforts to understand how to counter such shifts in the SARS genome should it happen and create vaccines against it. It is just a matter of it walked out on someone’s shoe before they even had a chance to come up with a counter to the bug they had just souped up.

Added to this last set of facts, I also can easily see how the virus could have escaped from WIV due to reporting before the pandemic where the lab had been cited for poor security practices. This is also a known quantity that is not a slam dunk, but, if you take all of the known known’s and assess the situation before and after the initial beginnings of the pandemic, well, I can easily see my way to a low to a medium confidence theory on a lab leak being the possible caue of the pandemic writ large.

Anyway, here’s an assessment written by ChatGPT on this…

ChatGPT: Create an intelligence estimate of the lab leak theory for sars-cov-2 and cite data that backs up this theory

Executive Summary:

The theory that SAR-CoV-2 originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) through a laboratory accident remains inconclusive. While there is some circumstantial evidence to support this hypothesis, there is also evidence against it, and alternative explanations remain plausible. Further investigation is necessary to determine the virus’s origins and the role of the WIV, including tracing the early spread of the virus and studying its genetic makeup. The possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be completely ruled out, and the scientific community and policymakers must continue to take steps to ensure the safety of biosecurity labs and prevent future accidents.

Background:

The emergence of the novel coronavirus SAR-CoV-2 in late 2019 has led to intense speculation about its origins. One hypothesis is that it may have accidentally leaked from the WIV, a high-level biosecurity laboratory located in Wuhan, China. The lab is known for its research on bat coronaviruses and is part of China’s effort to become a world leader in virology research.

Intelligence Assessment:

  1. Evidence supporting the lab leak theory:

There is some circumstantial evidence to support the theory that SAR-CoV-2 originated from the WIV through a laboratory accident. For example, the lab was conducting research on bat coronaviruses at the time of the outbreak, and there have been reports of lax safety protocols at the facility. In addition, some scientists have suggested that the virus’s genetic makeup is more consistent with laboratory manipulation than natural evolution. However, none of this evidence is conclusive, and alternative explanations remain plausible.

  1. Evidence against the lab leak theory:

There is also evidence that contradicts the lab leak theory. For example, the virus’s genetic makeup closely resembles that of other bat coronaviruses found in the wild, suggesting a natural origin. In addition, many experts believe that the virus likely originated in a wet market in Wuhan, where the sale of live animals provided an opportunity for the virus to jump from animals to humans. Furthermore, some early cases of COVID-19 were traced back to individuals who had no connection to the WIV, further casting doubt on the lab leak theory.

  1. Unanswered questions:

There are still many unanswered questions about the origins of SAR-CoV-2, and the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be completely ruled out. Further investigation is necessary to determine the virus’s exact origins, including tracing its early spread in Wuhan and studying the genetic makeup of the virus. In addition, more information is needed about the safety protocols at the WIV and other biosecurity labs around the world.

  1. Confidence in the intelligence assessment:

The level of confidence in the intelligence assessment varies depending on the specific evidence and alternative explanations. Overall, there is a medium level of confidence in the assessment due to the inconclusive nature of the evidence and the need for further investigation.

Conclusion:

The theory that SAR-CoV-2 originated from the WIV through a laboratory accident remains inconclusive. While there is some circumstantial evidence to support this hypothesis, there is also evidence against it, and alternative explanations remain plausible. Further investigation is necessary to determine the virus’s origins and the role of the WIV. The possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be completely ruled out, and the scientific community and policymakers must continue to take steps to ensure the safety of biosecurity labs and prevent future accidents. This includes increasing funding for biosafety research, strengthening regulations and oversight, and improving international cooperation to address global public health threats.

ChatGPT: Write a threat assessment remote on the hypothesis that the Wuhan virological lab was the source of an accidental leak of SAR-CoV-2

Threat Assessment Remote: Hypothesis of an Accidental Leak of SAR-CoV-2 from the Wuhan Virological Lab

Introduction:

Since the emergence of the novel coronavirus SAR-CoV-2 in late 2019, speculation has circulated around the origins of the virus. One hypothesis is that it accidentally leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China. This assessment will consider the potential threats associated with this hypothesis.

Background:

The Wuhan Institute of Virology is a high-level biosecurity laboratory located in Wuhan, China. The lab is known for its research on bat coronaviruses and is part of China’s effort to become a world leader in virology research. According to some reports, the lab may have been conducting research on bat coronaviruses at the time of the outbreak.

Threat Assessment:

  1. Public health threat:

If SAR-CoV-2 did originate from the Wuhan Virological Lab, the consequences of this accidental leak could have been catastrophic. The virus has caused a global pandemic, resulting in millions of deaths and widespread economic and social disruption. The risk of future pandemics originating from labs is a serious concern and could result in even more devastating outcomes.

  1. Economic and geopolitical threat:

The potential for damage to global economies and international relations is significant. If it is found that the virus originated from the Wuhan lab, there may be calls for reparations or punitive measures against China, leading to economic and geopolitical tensions.

  1. Threat to the credibility of biosafety protocols:

The safety of biosecurity labs is critical to preventing the accidental release of dangerous pathogens. If the hypothesis of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Virological Lab is proven to be true, it could damage the credibility of biosafety protocols and undermine public trust in the safety of such facilities.

  1. Risk of future accidents:

The risk of future accidents is a concern. If it is found that the virus did indeed originate from the Wuhan lab, it may indicate that the current safety protocols are insufficient. This could lead to increased scrutiny and stricter regulations for biosecurity labs, potentially hampering their ability to conduct critical research.

Conclusion:

The hypothesis that SAR-CoV-2 originated from the Wuhan Virological Lab presents a number of potential threats, including public health, economic, geopolitical, and credibility risks. While investigations into the origins of the virus are ongoing, it is crucial that biosecurity labs adhere to the highest safety standards to prevent future accidents and ensure the safety of researchers and the public.

Krypt3ia generated this text with ChatGPT, OpenAI’s large-scale language-generation model. This author reviewed, edited, and revised the language to my own liking and takes ultimate responsibility for the content of this publication

Written by Krypt3ia

2023/03/01 at 12:42

H1N1 Pandemic Plans

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H1N1 Fun Facts!

Written by Krypt3ia

2009/11/04 at 01:55

Posted in .gov, H1N1, PANDEMIC

“A census taker once tried to test me, I ate his liver with fava beans and a nice chianti”

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Census Taker Eyed As Possible Source of Flu’s Spread

By Mark Memmott

British news media, such as The Independent, are already making the connection to Typhoid Mary.

The story:

Maria Adela Gutierrez, a 39-year-old census taker in Oaxaca, Mexico, died of the H1NI/swine flu on April 13. As The Independent says, her job put Gutierrez in contact “with at least 300 unsuspecting members of the public when the disease was at its most virulent.”

But did Gutierrez spread the disease?

The Los Angeles Times reports that “Martin Vazquez Villanueva, the regional health secretary in Oaxaca, denied local news reports that said she had infected 20 people, as well as her husband and children.”

But according to The Independent, after Gutierrez became ill “state health authorities began to track down every person she’d had recent contact with and conduct check-ups.

“That discreet search … turned up more than 300 people, including many members of the public whom she’d interviewed as she knocked on doors in late March and early April. Local sources told Veratect, the US disease-tracking company which sounded the alarm, that between 33 and 61 of those interviewees ‘exhibited symptoms’ of a flu-like illness, though none have died.”

Evidently “Swine Flu” Mary potentially infected 300 people in her door to door campaign. And they say that taking the census is a civic duty! All this Swine flu jive really has me amused. I am just waiting on the whole “sudden zombie attacks” to start permeating the airwaves.

Look, unless this is a hemorrhagic fever or evolves into one with these symptoms:

  • Sore throat
  • Fever
  • Dry, hacking cough
  • Weakness
  • Severe headache
  • Joint and muscle aches
  • Diarrhea
  • Dehydration
  • Stomach pain
  • Vomiting.
AND
A rash, hiccups, red eyes, and internal and external bleeding may be seen in some patients. On dark skin, the rash is often not recognized until it begins to peel.
I am going to lump this more into the “SARS” category and break out the toilet paper, chicken soup, and ginger ale.

Written by Krypt3ia

2009/04/29 at 19:54