Archive for March 7th, 2017
Forty odd days into the new presidency and Putin is already telling his media minions to not talk about Trump anymore. The reason? Because Trump has become more unhinged and potentially uncontrolled by his possible handlers at the Kremlin is the going theory in the IC world. Personally I think that Putin is of two minds where this is concerned and this post will try to explain the possible blowback for him as well as the potential benefits of an unhinged president as well as maybe an impeachment. This gambit by Putin worked so well, too well, that perhaps the Kremlin and the ops guys (psyops/active measures/Gerasimov) could not have even gamed this out fully to have counter moves or plans on contingencies here.
The hacking of the DNC and all the active measures surrounding the 2016 election cycle from a strict operations standpoint was a thing of beauty to behold. Yes, it was carried out on us but as someone who appreciates a well planned out operation this one was pretty well done. The American populace was ripe for this and the political system was in a state where just a simple nudge with the right assets started the great Rube Goldberg device moving and it culminated in Trump winning the election. I will not cover the problems with our voting systems here I have done so in another post(s) a while back but let’s just look at it from the higher levels of disinformation shall we? The ‘Fake News’ thing was a perfect storm for the under-educated Facebook minions out there and the very nature of social media was the teflon sprayed slug that deployed it all. From the churnalists and the disinfo operations out there the sway and the echo chambering that happened allowed for a critical mass of Trump support that would in the end eek out the electoral win. This is a real feat given that three million or so people voted for Clinton and the overall popular vote was easily hers. This was some math that I do not believe Putin and his intelligence community thought was a real possibility. I think they were as shocked by Trumps win as Trump was on the night of the election.
Trump did win however and at that time it was in Putin’s interest to cater to the man, play him with praise and friendship in order to curry that favor. The reciprocal praise and love by Trump throughout the candidacy and into the presidency has been odd as well and plays to the whole ‘kompromat’ story too. For this piece I am not going to stray too far into the kompromat theory at the Trump level (another day soon) but it has to be mentioned here that at the very least, there seemed to be a bromance between them for whatever reasons. Likely on both parts at the base of it, the idea that if they are friends they can do deals together which is what Trump had said on more than one occasion. This idea plays for me outside the kompromat thing because this is Trump after all (The Art of the Deal etc) but on Putin’s part it was a contingency plan. Putin’s goal was to cause as much fractiousness as possible in the elections and to unbalance the US as he perceived Clinton had in Russia and he succeeded.
Now that Clinton was out and Trump was in Putin likely thought that it would be smooth sailing, but, he should have had an psychological monograph or assessment on Trump before assuming so. It seems that they did not and have been compiling one as of February after the win and spiral since then. This is where the blowback starts as well as the possible wins for Putin. On the blowback side, an uncontrolled Trump could lead to actual crazy actions that would impede Putin’s goals. What if Trump decides to go all out and attempt to block his actions in Ukraine? What if Trump does an about face on NATO? What if Trump just goes off the deep end and starts wars with proxies of Russia that would complicate Putin’s plans of regional control and power? All of these things have to be taken into account post the administrations rocky, to say the least, fits and starts these forty days or so. Add to this all of the attention by the media and the populace, who are now asking for independent investigations into the ties between Trump and Russia pre election and you have heat. This heat is anathema to Putin’s goals here and thus it is blowback for him. He has been distancing himself from Trump and if sudden unexplained deaths of certain Russians is any indication, he has been cleaning up loose ends as well. But these things lead back to the kompromat, and I am saving that for later.
Anyway, let’s look at the upside to the Trump instability for Putin. Trump is a wild card and his consistent instability is causing push back here in the US that may lead to serious investigations on him, his minions, and all of their connections to Russian money as well as the whole Emoluments issue. There are law suits being formed and registered as well as the notion of an independent counsel for the Russia investigation has been gaining momentum. With all of this friction, the wheels of the US’ foreign policy has been slowed as well. Suffice to say that with all that is happening it would be easy to not be able to respond properly to actions taking place in the world nor there being a real outcry to respond to things because we have all been thrust into self introspection and a certain protectionism mentality. With this slack space to work, even with Trump being an unpredictable and uncontrolled asset of the Kremlin, Putin would have room to work on moving his agenda forward rather unhindered.
Once again, the ‘Wilderness of Mirrors‘ can lead one to inaction because you just cannot tell what is real anymore and who is telling the truth. With Trump and his outlandish tweets (say like accusing Obama of a “wire tapp”) on Trump tower it is hard to tell what he believes and what he is trying to maybe throw shade on to unbalance us all. Putin might seek to enhance this behavior as well as use it to his advantage as well. I would expect more disinformation (fake news) that may well end up in the president’s tweet stream and not just stuff about internal politics here in the US. The goal overall is to keep us unbalanced because an unbalanced nation is a nation trapped in amber and a nation weakened to inaction is exactly what Putin needs to succeed …Even with blowback.