Prosecuting The Russian Cyber War: Beyond The Hyperbole
This weekend my father actually asked me what I thought Big O was gonna do to respond to the hacking of our elections. He continued in the same breath to ask if we were going to take out Russia’s grid or something like that. My first thought was to say “Noooo” and to then explain to him how that might go all kinetic real quick like on us if we did. My response to him yesterday will be the genesis of this blog post today for you all. Since everyone seems all hot and bothered as to how we will respond and not giving Big O the benefit of the doubt that he actually reads the PDB’s and thinks about them, I will boil it all down to what I would do against Russia and Pooty to thread the needle and not cause an escalation.
I would undertake the review on what exactly happened with the IW/DISINFO/PSYOP/Hack that took place for the election. This is important to not only understand what happened, but to understand just how much damage was done and what actions it took to set that into motion. From this you can assess the response level you need and in this case it has been rather speculative as to what really went down. This I also really point at the whole argument that the election machines in key states may or may not have had some supply chain tampering going on. So far I personally have seen no evidence that there was enough of an investigation to rule this out.
I would look at the capabilities we have and the intelligence we have collected on Putin. Intel such as a good psych profile and anything on his wealth/business structure. With both of these I would seek to discern what would hurt him personally, not so much the country. I would also use the psych profile to determine in red teaming out what his responses would be to certain scenarios. In essence I would perform a game scenario simulation to get the best results for us and start to build a plan(s) on those.
I would, knowing that this attack was personal for Pooty, and given his nature (much like Trumps really) I would perform the following actions;
- Attack his finances. All of the dirty ones first.
- Attack him with whatever kompromat we have (CIA/NSA) in the same leaks style that we saw from the elections (See news today about Tillerson for a cue)
- IF we have the assets in place both digital and “other” I would work to counter ongoing efforts in Germany and France as well as other places where we know he wants to do the same thing politically
These are the things I would do in parallel to assessing the damage to our forward capacities regarding the ShadowBrokers recent tease. IF all of those exploits on there are real, then all of them have been compromised and burned. Any operations that may have used those tools are burned and any future use of them has been burned. It is my opinion that the new events with the ersatz “Boceefus” account is just Pooty and the GRU saying “Try anything and you will fail” but that is only one dimensional thinking frankly. It is time to go beyond bits and bytes and also use HUMINT.
Just this guys take…